Excelente debate entre Jimmy da Chariot e Gusmaran

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Categoria: HRT
Criado em Segunda, 11 Junho 2012 Escrito por Lucas Amorim

Post do Jimmy:

Hi Tarles
Thanks for sending me the trancscript of the HRT Conference Call

I had read it previously, and my thoughts are as follows:

In my opinion HRT have yet to prrove themsewlves as businessmen.The poeple involved have strong geochemistry backgrounds which is very helpfull in the right situation.
I am not enthusiastic about HRT in the onshore Solimoes basins as I think getting commercial production in such a remote area is a challenge, and also because monetising remote stranded and relatively small gas fields is difficult. When De Golyer Mc Naughton issued their CPR on HRT they reported negative NPV values for onshore Brazil. The farm out to TNK BP would at first glance look like third party verification but the payment to buy in is contingent on achieving certain proven oil reserves or production, (as far as I can make out, perhaps others might confirm).



That leaves Namibia as the major driver value for HRT, and they ave recently signed a rig contract for four wells in Namibia.
HRT have two major areas offshore Namibia, the Southern Oranfe Basin and the Central Blocks near Chariots.

HRT have clearly shown widespread presence of oil seeps around its area of interest (which are also close to Chariots. This is certainly encouraging. However, we know the oil is sourced from an oil prone source rock which at the Kudu field is buried so deep it generates gas. My concern is that the prospects that are close to the Kudu field have had oil enter the reservoir, but if any gas enters the reservoirs they wil form a gas cap and either force out oil from such reservoirs or stop oil filling such reservoirs. So the risk of a gas field with an oil rim is high.
The further one moves away from Kudu the less of a risk this will happen. The HRT Moosehead prospect looks very interesting as its located in Block 2713 A/B , next to Chariots Nimrod prospect and a good distance from Kudu, so any success at Nimrod would be important to HRT, and likewise any success at Mooshead could upgrade Chariots 
Blocks 2714 A/B.

The HRT Central Blocks also have widespread oil shows, which is important. However, there appears to be a different emphasis by HRT as its prospects are in slightly deeper waters and are deep water turbidites. The Chariot Presentation slide of its Cetral Blocks shows the presence of volcanics above the source rocks to the west of the Chariot Blocks. We now know that volcanics cause premature maturity of oil source rocks, such as at Tapir South. I suspect that this is the reason that Chartiot shot its 3D seismic to the north east of its Central Blocks, where this risk is less. I am concerned about the risk of volcanics in HRT acreage, yet the oil seep analysis would indicate that there is an active petroleum system. HRT will just have to drill to find out.
From chariots point of view, this is a win win situation, because Chariots first Central Prospect is announced as its Delta prospect to be drilled in Q3/4 2013, which is well after HRT will have drilled in the HRT Central Blocks. If HRT are successfull, then it will hugely upgrade the Chariot lead called Colossus to the west of Chariots Blocks. 

One of the major differences between HRT and Chariot is that Chariot have a proven track record of farming out in Namibia and have partners such BP, PB and PGS. HRT are currently trying to farm out and have 10 companies looking at its data.However, remember that HRT have previously stated that Chariot have the best acreage in Namibia, and time will tell.

From a valuation point of view, I view the onshore Brazil operations as of little value. There is better potential in Chariot for oil than HRT's acreage (which has more gas risk in the south) . Chariot are more attractively valued than HRT. The markets have been punishing HRT very hard for its failure in Brazil to create shareholder value, and this will continue to weigh on the HRT share price for some time to come.
Chariot are valued much more attractively and have

 

Comentário do Gusmaran:

Li o post do Jimmy e o que tenho a dizer é que ele está encoberto por uma cegueira incalculável. Posso afirmar isso sem peso nenhum na consciência, pois tenho ambas as ações.

1) Ele afirma que a "vantagem" da Chariot é ter "trackrecord" de farm-outs com majors. Para início de conversa, quem fez o farm-down da Chariot para a Petrobras foi o Márcio Mello. Quem fazia inúmeros data-rooms para operadores era a HRT. Se alguém tem trackrecord em farm-downs, essa entidade é a HRT;

2) Chariot tem um melhor valuation que a HRT?! Só pode estar brincando! A HRT vale o caixa, enquanto a Chariot vale 2,5x o seu caixa. Em nenhuma métrica a Chariot é mais atraente que a HRT. Seja por valuation, por equipe, e/ou trackrecord do management. MM descobriu o pré-sal, WP sugeriu os poços pioneiros de Marlim. O que fez o Paul Welch? Eu direi. Perfurou um poço no prospecto do Tapir com um "erro" de 300 m para a sísmica. "Só isso". Fez uma baita cagada;

3) Solimões tem pouco valor? Acho que ele falou por falar. Não é possível. Acabo de ler reportagem da revista Época Negócios - segue link para assinantes (http://editoraglobocadastro.globo.com/EditoraGlobo/Cadastro/0,,ECC0-7172,00.html?urlRetorno=aHR0cDovL2Vwb2NhbmVnb2Npb3MuZ2xvYm8uY29tL0luZm9ybWFjYW8vRGlsZW1hcy9ub3RpY2lhLzIwMTIvMDYvZmxvcmVzdGEtZS1vLXBldHJvbGVvLmh0bWw=) dizendo que reina euforia no complexo de Urucu entre os funcionários da Petrobras. Segundo eles, esperam DOBRAR a produção de LÍQUIDOS no Solimões SOMENTE COM O IGARAPÉ-CHIBATA, E O CHIBATA LESTE. Dobrar! Significa 55 mil barris por dia! Mas ok, "é pouco". Se a HRT produzir metade disso, teria que valer R$ 40 por ação. Apenas metade dessa produção;

4) HRT nunca disse que os blocos da Chariot eram melhores. Mas o contrário. Segundo o Márcio Mello a migração do óleo se dá no sentido oeste-leste, fazendo com que a rota do óleo primeiro passe por Moosehead para alcançar Nimrod.

5) A Chariot está desfalcada em sua posição de caixa em apenas US$ 100 MM. Depois do Nimrod, não terá nenhum evento de relevância por um ano;

 

Fonte: fuster21 do fórum ADVFN

Resposta do Jimmy aos comentários do Gusma em relação ao post do inglês. Acho o Jimmy muito bom quanto a analises de CHAR e questões geológicas, mas, no que tange HRT tomou uma goleada do Gusma. Tirem suas próprias conclusões:

Here is my reply:
1. farm Outs, I have suggested that in viewing Chariots acreage compared to HRT's Namibian acreage that such acreage has the benefit of third party validation.The facts are that HRT have not farmed out any of its Namibian acreage at this time, while Chariot have farmed out to PB, PB and PGS. These are the facts.
Yes, it is also factual true that HRT, when it was an advisor to Chariot, it opened a data room that Petrobas visited before concluding a farm in to Chariot acreage.
What is also without dispute, is that HRT liked the Namibian potential so much, that even though it had been a technical advisor to Chariot it took out acreage in Namibia, both by way of licence or corporate acquisition in blocks which were in proximity to many of Chariots Blocks. HRT then went on to hire Kevin Broger who was previously CEO of Chariot.
Clearly, HRT liked what they saw in Chariots acreage, and this has been validated by third party farm outs. 

2. Valuations, Chariot has a carried well on Nimrod, HRT have no carried wells in Namibia, on the contrary they paid $700 million to acquire Unx which had namibian acreage. HRT are rapidly burning through their cash without having brought any of its projects into production cashflow. Its the cash burn rate in HRT that is making it weak. On a per bbl of P50 mean prospective resources in Namibia, Chariot are valued at $0.01 per bbl. HRT are valued at many multiples of that amount. It is true that HRT have had discoveries of mostly gas in the Solimoes basin, but at this time there is no access to a market for such gas. The oil is found in deep reservoirs with low porosities and will require expensive wells to get a high flow rate. The economics of such developments have yet to be published or demonstrated. All we know at this time is that De Golyer Mc Naughton previously reported an negative NPV for the HRT onshore projects.
2. track Record
Petrobas discovered the sub salt in Brazil, and as far as I know Petrobas have not attributed such discovery to HRT or MM. Yes its true that MM previously worked for Petrobas. With regard to Tapir, clearly Chariot made a mistake about the Tapir source rock and they are taking responsibility accordingly. However, HRT previously reported on the source rock potential of Bock 1811 in the Chariot IPO Competent Persons Report, which stated :

Tapir: source rock
" Lacustrine saline organic rich shales from Barremian Syn Rift and marine organic rich shales from the Transitional units (aptian/Lower Albian) similar to those been identified in the offshore Brazilian Basins." 
"In summary, the occurance of Albian- Aptian oil shows in the well 1911-/15-1, oil slicks, gas hydrates and gas chimneys in the proximities of the Blocks 1811 A&B, coupled with the results obtained by 3D compositional basin modelling over the area of the Blocks, suggests the presence of hydrocarbon migration pathways big enough to fill the leads mapped to spill point."

The actual result of the tapir South well have shown that there were no commercial quantities of oil. Yes Chariot made a mistake, but look at the HRT advice on the matter.
This is why a track record on farm outs is important. chariot have it on Nimrod, HRT do not yet have it on their acreage.

3. solimoes of little value
De Golyer Mc Naughton in their Competent Persons report stated it had a negative NPV.There has been no update on that report. There is no gas pipeline network for the gas, and the economics of the oil have yet to be demonstrated. For what oil has been discovered the economics of production from deep wells with poor porosity have yet to be deomonstrated.

4. HRT never said that Chariots Blocks were better than HRT's
What MM said was that Chariot had the best acreage in Namibia, in 2008 because I heard him say it, and other posters on th

 

Fonte: Gusmaran do fórum ADVFN

Resposta ao Jimmy:

1) A Chariot tem o carimbo da Petrobras, da BP e da PGS, porém quanto a este último, trata-se apenas de empresa de disparo sísmico. Então o que realmente deve ser considerado, em termos de importância, é a entrada da Petrobras e da BP em Orange. A PGS está em Walvis dividindo o custo da sísmica com a Chariot e assumindo o risco x retorno de uma possível descoberta. Portanto, não vejo a PGS como a validação de um terceiro. Outrossim, a Chariot é certificada pela Nethelands & Associates, empresa com menor prestígio que a DeGolyer & McNaughton, que certificou os prospectos da HRT. Ainda ressalto que a HRT está em processo de farm-out que irá obrigatoriamente acarretar na entrada de uma major;

2) Valuation entre a HRT e a Chariot deve ser tomado em conta por barris riscados. É por demais otimista e surreal usar barris prospectivos sem nenhuma atribuição de risco geológico e econômico. A Chariot tem (tinha) 1,240 BI de boe riscados e a HRT tem 7,9 BI, dos quais, mais de 500 são recursos contingentes. Não há comparação entre associação de risco entre recursos contingentes (descobertas) e recursos prospectivos (estudos sem descobertas), o que coloca a Chariot em nível mais elevado de risco. A HRT vale hoje (R$ 7,40 HRTP3) US$ 0,04 por ev/risked boe, enquanto a Chariot (86.75p) vale US$ 0,14 por ev/risked boe. Esse simples cálculo demonstra o quão subavaliada a HRT está diante da Chariot. A CHAR pode estar ainda mais cara que a HRT em função de os barris riscados do Tapir e do Zamba simplesmente não deveriam entrar na conta. Já explanei aqui que para mim, na ausência de oil seeps e ausência de source rocks, todos os prospectos do norte da Chariot deveriam ser retirados da conta (writte off). Mesmo analisando prospective resources de HRT x CHAR (antes desta última tomada sísmica de 9.000 km2 que a HRT completou) a HRT já possuía 28 Bi de boe unrisked x 16 bi de boe unrisked líquidos para a Chariot. Note que a Chariot já detinha 8.000 Km2 de estudos sísmicos 3D contra apenas 4.000 Km2 3D da HRT.

Quanto a queima de caixa na compra da UNX, isso simplesmente inexistiu. Foi uma troca de ações. Sobre o valuation do Solimões, o que dizer? A TNK pagou US$ 1 Bilhão por 45% do projeto, e a bacia já produz óleo, condensado e gás comercialmente. Para se comercializar o gás existe a necessidade mínima de encontrar recursos que garantam um plateau de produção mínima de 2 MM de m3 por dia por 15 anos. A HRT já encontrou estes recursos e está estudando com a TNK a produção e comercialização do gás. Sobre o report da D&M, o valor é negativo em P50 para os recursos contingentes. Até mesmo porque foram descobertas de 20 anos atrás da Petrobras e foram abandonados por não serem comerciais. Entretanto, o report da D&M da valor positivo ao P50 dos recursos prospectivos.

Sobre a perfuração da Chariot, o Márcio Mello me disse na semana passada: "avaliamos a sísmica 2D. A Chariot disparou um 3D e posteriormente realizaram os estudos por lá. Remodelaram e escolheram onde perfurar. O Wagner Peres disse que não perfuraria o Tapir". Jimmy, eu se fosse você buscaria os detalhes das últimas apresentações da HRT. A HRT proferiu palestra mostrando que não há oil seeps a 100 Km ao norte dos blocos da HRT em Walvis, e os modelos não apresentam source rocks naquela região. A HRT costuma modelar sísmicas 2D para 3D. Eu mesmo já vi isso, mas a imagem 3D é infinitamente mais precisa. A Chariot nem tinha disparado 3D quando fez seu IPO.

3. Concordo, há de se provar;

4. Em 2008 se sabia muito pouco sobre os blocos da UNX e muito menos sobre Walvis. A única empresa com prospectos avaliados até então eram da Chariot. Então, por exclusão e por inexistência de pares comparáveis, somente a Chariot poderia ter o melhor prospecto da Namíbia.

Para finalizar, é um prazer podermos debater um assunto que interessa demais, ainda mais no alto nível de seus comentários. Espero que poste por aqui também, mas se não puder, segue meu e-mail: O endereço de e-mail address está sendo protegido de spambots. Você precisa ativar o JavaScript enabled para vê-lo.

Hrt Petróleo, A Menina Dos Óleos - http://br.advfn.com/p.php?pid=fbb_thread&bb_id=11&id=7791049&from=12101#first_article_divider




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Chariot shareholder (07.04.2013 (03:56:13))
Yes No i think we will soon find out who is right. Jimmy is an excellent poster, very knowledgeable and always willing to share. Mello is an awesome oil exploration guy. Chariot's BOD are doing the right thing and sitting back and letting Mello do the next piece of work before they push onwards. There is oil in Namibia no doubt - just a matter of time to find it... this site is also useful www.helioschariot.com

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